By guest author Paulo Sargento
With a documentary about the book “The Truth of the Lie” drawing close (which I strongly recommend to EVERYONE), the British media have massively come out to try to protect, more than ever before, the McCanns’ image. As a matter of fact, Dr Gerry McCann himself has admitted that there were “mistakes on both sides”, according to what Duarte Levy mentions, today, the 13th of April 2009, in daily newspaper ‘24horas’. Now why is that?
But this massive defence by the British newspapers is carried out through an attack, an ignorant and often lying attack, against former PJ investigator Gonçalo Amaral, with the same means. I have already stated that the traditional Portuguese almanac ‘O Borda d’Água’ has much more interest than most of the press that I’m talking about. Still, I wish to signal such media production as the reflex of what I am certain is the enormous fear that said documentary is causing on the McCanns’ side.
Dr Gerry McCann was in Portugal on the weekend before Easter, with the supposed purpose of carrying out a reconstitution of the events of the fateful night of the 3rd of May 2007. In practical terms, Dr Gerry McCann, Jane Tanner and Dr Mathew Oldfield came as consultants for the making of a documentary about what they want to say concerning what happened that night. That fact constitutes, as Karl Popper would say, a strong attack upon the falsifiability that is necessary for the scientific evidence, because it is deadly wounded by confirmatory epistemology. What does this mean? It means, very simply, that nobody can be a judge in his own cause, and that the documentary will necessarily reflect what the “consultants” think about the facts without any intervention of a contradictory nature. The same is to state that this is no reconstitution at all, because: the intervenients are not all present, those who came possess a theory that is not based on facts, one of them is verifiably inconsistent in her testimony (Jane Tanner) and the documentary’s script is not questionable by critical methodologies or by impartial observers.
As a conclusion, this is a FRAUD that will privilege, like an alleged reconstitution from the BBC, the figure of a supposed abductor who hides inside an apartment in front of the back entrance to 5A (and nobody saw him?), studies the family’s routines and those of the tapas nine (which is unlikely, given the high number of intervenients and the short number of days when that could happen – four), abducts Maddie within a relatively short time frame, exits through the window, carrying the little girl in his arms, under the testimony of Jane Tanner, and escapes through a cane field, according to the witness statement from two British citizens who have nothing to do with the case. I’m certain that emphasis will be placed upon two moments: when Gerry enters the apartment and ‘senses’ someone, and when Jane Tanner ‘sees’ the alleged abductor. The documentary’s atmosphere will be tense and will show the unfortunate and sad parents who will deeply lament that they were not at the right time, at the place where they should have been. It will bring us nothing new, just like the so-called new media campaign didn’t bring us anything. Another CLOWN ACT ‘for the English to see’.
In October 2007, in collaboration with Professor Pedro Gamito and his team (Diogo Morais, Jorge Oliveira, Tomás Saraiva, Miguel Pombal and Joel Rosa), I carried out a 3D reconstitution of the two hours that supposedly preceded the disappearance of Madeleine Beth McCann. With data available from four credible sources, two Portuguese ones and two English ones (‘Público’, ‘Sol’, ‘Times Online’ and ‘BBC’), without any previous theory, through the calculation of the index of concordance between these sources and with the intention of describing the events, we could verify that:
– The McCanns lied in their initial statements (from where they dined, it was IMPOSSIBLE to see apartment 5A and the distance that separated them from their children was 84 metres as the crow flies, 114 metres walking, and not approximately 50 as they mentioned);
– The number of comings and goings of the tapas nine members (14) in two hours, with the intent of allegedly checking on the children, produced, in average, time “windows” that were of less than 7 minutes without surveillance. But if we add the comings and goings of these people movements and the high probability of other pedestrians walking on that location, which was also visible from the buildings in front, where many people could be on the balcony, we verify that, according to Bayes’ theorem of conditional probability (taking as possible hypothetical events, two abductions in Praia da Luz, that week), the possibility of an abductor (either premeditated or acting on an impulse) having entered the apartment, taking the little girl, leaving through the window, leaving no trace, without being seen, would be lower than the possibility of a cat falling on a piano’s keyboard with five octaves and playing the anacrusis of the four notes of Beethoven’s fifth symphony. It’s obvious that the problem becomes more complex when it was the parents who mentioned the abduction, immediately and insistently (See video).
But there was another problem. How long would it take for someone to hide the body at a location like the Church? The same team carried out a simulation where, along two alternative routes, someone who took a body by car, at a medium speed of 50 km/h (the maximum speed allowed inside an urban area), would need approximately 27 seconds to carry out that trip. If we imagine a time window of 7 minutes, we would conclude that it would be possible for someone to take Maddie to the church and to return to the Ocean Club within this time frame, even more so because some of the participants left the restaurant for periods over 20 minutes (See video).
This is all for today, but I promise to return to demonstrate once more that the sightings were “fabricated” and that the e-fits are the most ridiculous production of this entire process.
Before I say goodbye, recommending to EVERYONE to watch the documentary that will be broadcast by TVI today, I leave you some unsettling thoughts:
a) Three months ago, on a cold Friday night, I was having coffee with a friend when we received unconfirmed news by phone, from England, that a sudden and critical deterioration of Kate McCann’s health condition had led her to a border situation. This kind of reference has been frequent in certain circles, without it being possible to confirm anything whatsoever, at any hospital. Nevertheless, Kate has been strangely distant and the twins have been spotted, but not their Mother. The allusions to “Kate’s depressions” have been another stumbling stone of this case.
b) Método 3 is no longer mentioned on the findmadeleine site. What happened?
c) The findmadeleine site now anticipates, on its homepage, new t-shirts of the failed campaign on Aldeia da Luz.
d) R. Murat has sued some Portuguese media, the McCanns HAVE NOT!
See you soon.
Paulo Sargento on “Câmara de Comuns”
Translated by Astro from Joana Morais blog.